met.no report 9, 2004

Rasmus E Benestad and Egil Støren

Seasonal Forecasting for Norway:
an assessment

A brief review of seasonal forecasting studies relevant to the Scandinavian region is presented. Seasonal forecast products from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have been evaluated against interpolated 2-meter temperature for Oslo. The assessment suggests a small but positive anomalous correlation coefficient, indicative of some skill of statistical significance at the 5 % level. The assessment was compared with ECMWF’s own verification, showing a good agreement. Seasonal forecasts from ECMWF were compared with simple empirical-statistical model results from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, the latter indicating similar, albeit slightly lower, correlation. Additional external seasonal forecasting resources are also presented. Some examples of how seasonal forecasts may be presented are also given.

Keywords: Seasonal forecasting, ECMWF products, empirical models, evaluation.

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