Rapport Klima 7, 2003

Rasmus E Benestad og Inger Hanssen-Bauer

Empirical-based refinement of dynamically downscaled temperature scenarios in southern Norway

Daily temperature scenarios derived through dynamical downscaling have been subject to subsequent empirical downscaling analysis, geographical modelling, and a spatial interpolation. These refined scenarios are compared with the results from the dynamical downscaling.

The empirically and dynamically based results give different results, however, the major difference between the refined scenarios and the temperatures from the dynamical downscaling being the introduction of more prominent small-scale geographical features in the empirical-based analysis. The empirically-based refinement yields somewhat weaker warming in winter, summer and autumn, but slightly stronger warming in spring.

Climate change; empirical downscaling; dynamical downscaling; daily temperature

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