Rapport Klima 1, 2003

Rasmus E Benestad

Downscaling analysis for daily and monthly values using clim.pact-V0.9

An analysis tool, clim.pact, has been developed for empirical downscaling and analysis of local and regional climate on both a daily and a monthly basis. This tool is tested with both monthly and daily data and a number of different scenarios are compared.

Empirical downscaling is carried out with clim.pact on January mean temperature in Bergen, Copenhagen, Helsinki, Oslo, Stockholm, and Tromsø, using single field as well as mixed-field predictors and with predictors that cover different regions. A comparison is made between the various results in order to study the robustness of the method. Furthermore, the residuals from the model calibration are examined for remaining trends or biases.

The clim.pact package is used for downscaling of daily winter mean temperature and precipitation in Bergen and Oslo. The statistical relationship between the regional climate and local variability is examined and future shifts in mean and extreme values, suggested by the scenarios, are presented.

Keywords: Downscaling analysis, daily values, monthly values, common EOFs.

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