Rapport Klima 11, 2002

Rasmus E Benestad og Ole Einar Tveito

A survey of possible teleconnections Affecting Fennoscandia

The analysis suggests there may be a weak influence of the Arctic sea-ice on the temperature and precipitation in Fennoscandia. The link between the sea-ice and temperature is strongest during winter, but there may also be a weak link between the sea-ice cover and precipitation winter, spring and autumn. There is furthermore a faint sign of a lagged relationship between sea-ice and temperature during spring and autumn.

The results from the same analysis applied to North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) indicate a clear effect on the land air surface temperatures, especially in southern Scandinavia. The corresponding R² estimates for the precipitation suggest much weaker links with the North Atlantic SSTs.

Estimates of R² were computed from correlation analysis between the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) and the respective station records. The well documented link between the winter-time temperatures in northern Europe and the NAOI is also found, as is the link between the NAOI and precipitation along the western coast of Norway and southern Sweden.

The study explored the latitudinal excursions of the Gulf Stream extension branching off from the north American continent to see if these can be associated with temperature or precipitation variations over northern Europe. The results suggests that any effects, if at all, are marginal. Likewise, the analysis could not find any links between ENSO and climatic variations over northern Europe.

Keywords: Teleconnection, sea-ice, sea surface temperature, NAO, land-temperature, precipitation, Gulf Stream.